Downstream reduces new orders, wafer foundries begin to adjust product structure

According to analysts, unprecedented chip demand feast has ended. Although it was promoted by the new iPhone of Apple in the fall of 2022, the revenue of the top 10 wafers in the world in the third quarter of 2022 increased by 6%and the total revenue reached US $ 35.21 billion. optimism.

According to analysts, unprecedented chip demand feast has ended. Although it was promoted by the new iPhone of Apple in the fall of 2022, the revenue of the top 10 wafers in the world in the third quarter of 2022 increased by 6%and the total revenue reached US $ 35.21 billion. optimism. Earlier, TrendForce also predicted that due to weak demand, chip sales decreased and inventory increased, and revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 in the world's top 10 wafer agents will decline.

The agency also stated that China ’s clearance policy, the global economic weakness and high inflation have previously affected the confidence of global consumers. Therefore, the peak demand performance in the second half of 2022, and the speed of semiconductor inventory consumption is lower than expected. This situation has also led to a significant repairs of wafer foundry orders. The two -year chip demand boom was officially ended in the fourth quarter of 2022.

It is worth noting that there is still a problem of chip supply in the automotive market. According to McKinsey's report, the car industry's dependence on 90 nanometers will lead to unbalanced supply and demand for automobile chips within a period of time. However, the factors that are not good for chip manufacturers are not necessarily unfavorable to chip procurement. Waiting for terminal product manufacturers waiting for key component shipments will see that the semiconductor supply chain that has been tense has begun to loosen before.

As of now, this severe market prediction information has almost not affected the plan of chip manufacturers' new wafer factories. The passing of the US "Chip Act" promotes more wafer fabrics to invest in the United States. For example, TSMC has added a second wafer plant in Arizona; Samsung has expanded its investment in Texas; Micron announced its investment in New York investment in New York. 100 billion US dollars to build a large wafer factories. In addition, the company also plans to invest $ 15 billion in Boisi City, Aida, to build a new plant.

The top 10 wafer agents account for 90 % of the world's market share
TSMC, Samsung, UMC, Georfal, and SMIC have led the global wafer foundry market in the third quarter of 2022. Based on revenue, the total revenue of these five companies accounts for 89.6%of the global wafer foundry market. However, TrendForce also noticed that in the third quarter of 2022, downstream customers reduced inventory and new order activities. The specific manifestation is below:

TSMC is the manufacturer of Apple's new iPhone chip. Due to the strong inventory demand of the new iPhone, TSMC's performance in the third quarter of 2022 increased significantly, revenue was 20160 million US dollars, and revenue increased by 11.1%month -on -month. The factors to promote this growth can be attributed to chips with a chip of TSMC within 7nm (including 7nm) process nodes. The proportion of revenue of such chips accounted for TSMC's total revenue has been rising, reaching 54%in the third quarter of 2022.

Although Samsung also provided components for the new iPhone series, the revenue ring of Samsung foundry business in the third quarter of 2022 decreased slightly by 0.1%month -on -month, and due to the significant weakening of the Korean won, Samsung's market share dropped to 15.5%.

The third quarter of UMC's revenue in the third quarter of 2022 was approximately US $ 2.48 billion, an increase of 1.3%in the quarter. UMC's performance in this quarter was mainly affected by the stronger dollar and the booster factors brought about by the new 28nm capacity.

Giro Fangde's quarterly income increased by 4.1%to about $ 2.07 billion. This growth is due to the quarter -old growth of wafer shipments, as well as further optimization of wafer ASP (average sales price) and product portfolio. In addition, Gro Fangde has maintained more than 90%of the capacity utilization rate.

SMIC's revenue in the third quarter of 2022 was approximately US $ 1.91 billion, a slight increase of 0.2%from the previous month. SMIC's product portfolio is biased towards consumer electronics chips, so the company's performance in the third quarter. Nevertheless, benefiting from the optimization of wafer ASP offset the impact of the decline in product portfolio and wafer shipments, SMIC's third quarter revenue in 2022 is still rising.

The impact of downstream revision orders on the wafer plant foundry
TrendForce's report also stated that the US export control has led to SMIC customers to become more hesitant in increasing wafer investment. However, in this context, SMIC increased its capital expenditure by 32%in 2022, from the original planned $ 5 billion to $ 6.6 billion. According to this adjustment, SMIC hopes to accelerate the procurement progress of the equipment procurement of the three new wafer fab in Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai to minimize the impact of US export control.

In addition, IC Insights also modified its global semiconductor capital expenditure data in 2022. The modified data shows that in 2022, global semiconductor capital expenditure will increase by 19%to $ 181.7 billion. The revised amount decreased by 24%compared with the original predicted 190.4 billion US dollars. Although the agency has reduced capital prediction data, the revised data can still reach a record level.

According to TrendForce data, observing the revenue ranking in the third quarter of 2022, the quarterly -ranked quarterly revenue of Huahong Group and the 10th high tower semiconductor increased, while the strength of Liqin, World Advanced and Crystal Integration integrated The quarterly revenue declined.

Among the top 10, Jinghe's integrated decline is the largest, mainly due to the imbalance between demand and capacity. Specifically, drive IC suppliers, including Lian Yong Technology, Ji Chuang North and Yili Technology, are affected by the continuous increase in inventory pressure, and have lowered the wafer investment, but Jinghe Integration is still expanding production capacity. Therefore, the revenue of Jinghe's integration in the third quarter decreased by 22.5%month-on-month to $ 371 million, and its capacity utilization rate also dropped to 80%-85%.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, revenue declined greater
Earlier, TrendForce predicted that the foundry orders for consumer electronic chips will drop sharply in the fourth quarter of 2022. Most of the companies in the world's top ten wafer foundries will slow down or decline in income. However, TSMC's revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 may be flat.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, the capacity utilization rate of wafer foundry:

UMC adjusts the product structure and distributes more capacity to automotive chips and industrial chips, but due to the decline in orders of consumer electronics chips, its capacity utilization rate will still decrease by 10 percentage points;

Gro Fangde cannot maintain high -yield capacity utilization rate because he does not obtain sufficient 8 -inch wafer foundry for a long -term agreement;

The capacity utilization rate of Hua Hong subsidiary Huaili 55 nanometer node is declined. The production of the node production is used for MCU, Wi-Fi chip and CMOS image sensor for consumer electronics;

Due to CMOS image sensors, DDI, and other logical chip-related orders corrections, the capacity utilization rate of 8-inch and 12-inch wafers of Liji Power has fallen to 60%-65%and 70%-75%respectively; the world's advanced capacity utilization rate Fall to about 70%.

 

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